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The race to the NRL finals is heating up and history suggests at least one side currently sitting outside the top eight will still be alive in September.

According to stats compiled by rugby league historian David Middleton, 20 teams have played finals since 1999 having been on the outside looking in after 20 rounds.

Last year it was the Knights, who were 10th and in the midst of a 10-game winning streak and finished 5th, and the Roosters who were down in 14th before winning six of their last seven games to end up seventh.

With the tight nature of this year’s competition, seven teams currently outside the eight have the chance to play finals football.

The Dragons sit ninth, level on points with the eighth-placed Cowboys, with the Raiders two points back on 22 points. The Broncos, Rabbitohs and Knights all have 20 points, with the Warriors 19 and Titans 18.

Finals football looks a bridge too far for the Eels (14) and Wests Tigers (12).

The return of halfback Adam Reynolds has Brisbane confident they will be the side to go on a run in the back end of the season. 

The veteran led the Broncos to a comfortable victory over Newcastle last weekend, helping the side snap a six-game losing streak in his first match since Round 9.

Brisbane will now host the sixth-placed Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon in a clash that could swing both team's seasons. 

Last week's win has filled the Broncos with confidence and Reynolds said the 2023 grand finalists are confident they can produce the form required to climb into the top eight.

"I love this team and I know what this team's capable of," Reynolds told reporters in Brisbane. "We've seen evidence of it this year and last year. 

"The attitude doesn't change. You've got to turn up, put in the hard work at training and then those things sort themselves out. We've got a chance to do something [special] and we can't take this position for granted. 

"We need to work extremely hard at training, get through our structures and make sure we deliver that on gameday."

NRL Best Moments - Round 20

With so many teams fighting to play finals football, the pressure is on those currently inside the eight to make sure they stay there throughout the final seven rounds of the season. 

Such is the tight nature of the competition, not even the third-placed Sharks (28 points) are safe. 

The fourth-placed Roosters (26) sit just two points clear of the ninth-placed Dragons, with Manly fifth on 25 points and the Bulldogs, Dolphins and Cowboys all level with St George Illawarra on 24. 

The Roosters will host the Sea Eagles at Allianz Stadium on Saturday night, with the winner able to create some breathing room beneath them. 

Tom Trbojevic as advertised

Roosters veteran Luke Keary is pleased his side is currently above the clutter but said they can't afford to take it easy with a number of desperate teams looming on the schedule. 

"In previous years we've been right at the bottom of that log jam, which has been difficult," Keary said. "It's a cliche but we're just concentrating on ourselves. That's all we can do at this time.

"If you start looking around [at other clubs], things start going pear-shaped for you. We had a hiccup on the weekend but we've had a really good couple of months of footy. I like where we're at as a team, we've built a good foundation to launch off for the back end of the year but there's still a lot of hard work to be done. 

"It's very close with seven, eight teams close to each other. You lose a couple and all of a sudden you're in trouble. You've got to keep your head down throughout this period then make a charge for that top four."

Walker in the tries

None of the teams currently sitting outside the top eight planned on being in this position at the start of the season but some have more experience than others in successfully pulling off a late run to the finals. 

The aforementioned Knights achieved the feat last year, while they also came from 11th in 2021 to finish seventh. 

The Raiders have done it five times, more than any other team in the NRL. The most recent occasion was 2022, where they climbed from ninth to eighth before shocking the Storm in Melbourne in an elimination final in the opening week of the playoffs. 

Canberra currently sit 10th, two points outside the eight with their finals destiny in their own hands. The return of Jamal Fogarty provided a major boost in last week's win over the Warriors and the halfback shapes as the key man in their late-season charge. 

Fogarty back with a bang

A clash with the Rabbitohs this weekend is followed by games against Canterbury, Manly, North Queensland and the Dragons throughout the final six weeks of the competition.

Given the nature of the ladder, there's every possibility the Round 27 clash with St George Illawarra is an unofficial play-in game for both teams. 

South Sydney have won six of their last seven to soar into finals contention and hope to have Latrell Mitchell back on deck for the final rounds as they make a late push to the end of the season. 

Raiders hooker Tom Starling said his squad is not daunted by the task ahead and is confident the lessons of previous years will hold them in good stead.

"The last couple of years we were starting to play our best footy at the back end of the season," Starling told reporters in Canberra. "It's where we really find our game. 

"We've put ourselves in a bit of a tough spot just outside the eight. It's pretty clustered at the moment but we play our best footy coming down the stretch and we're looking forward to the challenge ahead. 

"I know what this group can do and what we've done in the past so I'm looking forward to the next few rounds. There's a couple of big weeks ahead but we're taking it week by week."

Getting into the finals is a major challenge but should any of these seven teams make it to September, they will be faced with an even bigger task. 

Of the 20 teams to make the finals from outside the eight, only the 2009 Eels have made it all the way to the grand final. No side has progressed past the second week of the finals since that dream run 15 years ago. 

That, however, is a challenge for another day. The current focus is simply on making the eight. Once you're in, then you can start plotting a premiership push. 

Acknowledgement of Country

National Rugby League respects and honours the Traditional Custodians of the land and pay our respects to their Elders past, present and future. We acknowledge the stories, traditions and living cultures of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples on the lands we meet, gather and play on.

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