NRL Fantasy: Managing trades for the run home

NRL Fantasy coaches logged on earlier this week to find a nice surprise with the addition of eight more trades for the run home.

The arrival of the final trade allotment for 2024 was a welcome gift for coaches, many of whom have battled against an unforgiving injury toll this season and burned through their first 44 at a ferocious pace. 

So now we've got more, what do we do with them, and how many trades should be kept aside for the final rounds?

Trades for red dots

Chances are a couple of trades will need to be used this week, with plenty of head-to-head sides still having Latrell Mitchell or Nicho Hynes on their books, while injuries, suspensions and coach-ordered restings are set to cause havoc on the back of Origin III.

At this stage coaches need to be ready to suck up a bit of short-term pain in order to preserve those precious final trades, so from the outset any Origin player rested this week without an actual injury i.e. Isaah Yeo should be held if at all possible. 

As a general rule if a player is expected to miss less than three games right now then I'd be holding them, unless it means you can't field a full team or means you'll likely lose an important H2H game. 

Trades to cash out money makers

In the earlier parts of the season $100k is the mark I use to determine if a cash cow prospect has become an actual cash cow, and until they hit that mark they aren't worth cashing out. But at this point of the year I'm much tougher and not looking to burn a trade on anyone who hasn't achieved upwards of $150k in value gained.

It means players like Fletcher Sharpe ($134k in value gained) are probably not worth moving off now unless you are flush with trades. 

The other thing to consider at this time of the year is whether a player has actually evolved from being a cash cow to an outright keeper. For example someone like Ethan Strange is now a serviceable starting CTR option and most trades for a like-for-like positional player will be sideways. Likewise, Lachlan Galvin is a low-tier keeper HLF now and worth holding. 

How to know if you're in good trade shape

There's no hard and fast rule here and much of it will depend on how well you've built your squad to date in terms of positional depth, with those dual position players now so valuable. 

Feedback from most coaches this year is that they are pretty well covered at EDG, MID, HLF and WFB, but lacking quality depth, and in some cases any depth at all, outside of their starters at CTR and HOK. 

If you're playing for overall points then I'd want to enter the final three games with two trades left to cover possible major injuries or the very real prospect that guns will be rested in Round 27 by clubs with nothing to gain or lose at that point. It happened last year with clubs like the Storm, Broncos and Warriors opting to sit many of their starters and caused chaos on the Fantasy front.

If you're in a H2H league and in danger of missing the finals, then make your trades to improve your chances now; it's better to be a finals team with no trades left than a non-finals team with a couple still up the sleeve.

Otherwise check the bye schedule and how it aligns to your finals series carefully and stock trades up for those rounds or make trades now to avoid upcoming clashes.

Ideally you want to enter the finals with three trades still at disposal to cover for injuries and to give you the freedom to make a tactical trade in order to win a matchup.