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Matters of State: What changes will we see for Game Three?

The selection tables appear to have turned for Queensland and New South Wales as all eyes look to Suncorp Stadium for this year's Ampol State of Origin decider.

After dropping Origin I at home, Blues coach Michael Maguire opted for five changes ahead of Game II which all proved crucial in an emphatic 38-18 victory as NSW surged to a record half-time lead.

With the Origin III teams to be selected after this weekend's Round 18 matches, it seems unlikely that the Blues will tinker with a winning formula – injuries notwithstanding – but there are options for Maguire if he wants them.

Centre Bradman Best has been in red-hot form of late, while Matt Burton – who was 18th player in the series opener – helped steer the Bulldogs to victory against the Sharks and has the versatility to cover centre as well as five-eighth.

Best seals the win with two 90m tries

However, with noted game-breaker Tom Trbojevic set to return from a long layoff, a good performance for Manly could prove enticing for Maguire to include him in the NSW squad as 18th player or even on the bench if desired.

Interchange forward Haumole Olakau'atu has had limited time to impress so far in the series, coming on in the 50th minute in Game II for 18 minutes and playing 23 minutes in the series opener.

Olakau'atu has been used in the middle, whereas he plays on an edge for Manly.

If Maguire was to call up Trbojevic, his Sea Eagles team-mate could be the one to make way as Liam Martin and Angus Crichton are 80-minute second-rowers and lock Cameron Murray can also play on an edge if required.

Connor Watson, who made his Origin debut in Melbourne, demonstrated his versatility by playing in a myriad of positions for the Roosters against Wests Tigers, and can cover virtually any position on the field. 

While Maguire is far more likely to opt for an unchanged side than any late switches, the same cannot be said for Maroons coach Billy Slater, who must find at least one new face following the injury to Storm winger Xavier Coates.

Slater's "we're still Queenslanders" line when asked what changes he'd consider for the series decider emerged as one of the biggest talking points from the MCG defeat. 

His response – no doubt cryptic and vague – was perhaps more intended for Queensland fans wondering what had gone so badly wrong in Melbourne and what he was going to do about it, rather than a direct reflection of his selection plans.

However, it still raised the question as to what the side for Game III would be.

His line – “we're still Queenslanders” – implies he will give the players who are no doubt disappointed in their own performances a chance to redeem themselves and reiterated his belief that anyone he picks will do a job.

That comment opens the door for the likes of Valentine Holmes to make amends for his tough outing in Game II, while Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, who injured his shoulder against the Blues, is also expected to be fit to play in news that will alleviate some of Slater’s injury concerns.

There are some forced changes that will need to be made, however, with the Melbourne Storm confirming winger Coates will spend the next six-to-eight weeks on the sidelines with a low-grade hamstring tear.

Selwyn Cobbo, whose inclusion on the bench in Game One was classed as a coaching masterstroke, has declared his intention to make himself available for selection and performed well for the Broncos in a defeat to the Warriors last week.

The Cherbourg junior is likely to slot back into the squad with Coates out, given he can play anywhere along the backline.

Dane Gagai, who was 18th player in Melbourne, is another who has done the job for Queensland in the past and could come in at centre and shift Holmes out on to the wing.

Cobbo really can do it all

Since the defeat, there are plenty of suggestions about additional changes that the Maroons could make to counter the impact of NSW and their attacking left edge, includin David Fifita, who has been in devastating form since returning from pectoral and ankle injuries. 

Slater's comments to Channel Nine prior to Round 17 highlighted that the Titans forward was well and truly in the mix for a potential return to the Origin arena, despite being overlooked for the likes of Jaydn Su'A and Kurt Capewell.

“David Fifita has been in the conversation for every Origin game including the first one,’’ Slater said on Channel Nine's coverage.

"He had a bit of a chequered start to the season... but has been playing some great footy and those conversations will happen next Sunday."

Another player whose injuries this season have played havoc with his Origin chances is AJ Brimson.

Brimson is tipped to return to the field this week against the Sharks and could make a play for the bench spot with his utility value, having shown himself capable on the Origin stage after featuring in Game III last year.

On the back foot before the series even started in terms of forward selection, with long-term injuries to walk-up starts Tino Fa'asuamaleaui, Tom Gilbert and Tom Flegler, the Maroons have been further stung by the injury to J'maine Hopgood.

The Eels lock is out for least three months due to back surgery and there are also concerns over the fitness of Rabbitohs enforcer Jai Arrow, who has battled a shoulder complaint. 

Match: Maroons v Blues

Game 3 -

Maroons

home Team

Maroons

Blues

away Team

Blues

Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Match broadcasters:

  • WatchNRL

While Slater will have faith in his side to bounce back in front of a home crowd at Suncorp Stadium, they will need to step up quick-smart to counter a confident Blues outfit looking to make history. 

The Blues will name their side for Game III on Sunday, July 7, while the Maroons will announce their side the following morning.

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