Going the distance: Why short dropouts are on the rise

It has long been a risky and rarely employed tactic in rugby league but numbers show teams are opting more for the short drop out in a bid for possession and points.

It's certainly not a case of the most successful teams go for it but if the tactic continues to be practised and perfected, the short dropout could become an important play to shift momentum in crucial stages of a game.

We saw Adam Reynolds go for the option on two occasions in the 2023 grand final, but we have also seen teams punt the ball short when a game is all but won.

So who is taking the gamble and why? 

Matt Burton led the way with 26 short dropouts for the season and Shaun Johnson, Scott Drinkwater and Cameron Munster were closely behind with 25 as teams found the risk worth the reward when it came to gambling field position.

"I know for us, we went after them this year and spent a lot of time on it," Bulldogs five-eighth Burton told NRL.com.

"When the game is on the line you don’t want the other team to get the ball again so it’s worth trying to get it back."

For Johnson, it's a different strategy.

"The number crunching [on whether to do it] comes when I ask my front-rowers 'do you want me to go long or short?" he told NRL.com.

"They are always going to choose short. It's no fluke though, we do a lot of work at training and we all have a role in that.

If you watch every short dropout we do, we have got boys in the same position every time. It's something we will definitely keep doing.

Warriors halfback Shaun Johnson

A growing success

With a 44 percent increase over the last three years, the numbers prove it’s an evergrowing tactic and the success rate shows why. In 2019, only 22 short dropouts were regained by the kicking side while in 2023, 82 attempts were successful.  

The Bulldogs, Warriors and Cowboys were the most effective team when it came to regaining short dropouts. From the 27 they attempted last season, they all reclaimed possession on nine occasions (33 percent).

Burton is driving the trend at Belmore with the 23-year-old revealing to NRL.com a clear stance on the tactic - 'the risk is worth the reward'.

"We worked really hard on it at the beginning of the year as we saw it as a good opportunity to go after the game in an attacking way," he said.

"There’s always a 50/50 chance you’re going to get it back so the risk is worth the reward. Teams usually run the ball back to that spot anyway so you might as well make it a competition and see if you get the ball back.

"Just compete on it and see how you go."

Burton also chose to capitalise on having two athletic players either side of him on the field, dangerous in challenging for the ball over the 10-metre.

"When the game is on the line you never want to be defending your try line so if you can get the ball back and down the other end then that’s my mindset on when to go for it," he said.

"Half the reason I decided to do it this year is because usually we’ve got (Jayden) Okunbor in the back row on that right side and (Jacob) Kiraz usually pushes in from wing to centre.

"So it’s a massive play with those guys in the backs because I know they’re good under the high ball and we’ve got a good chance of getting it back."

Two of the competition's top four sides in 2023 also took to the trend with the Storm leading all teams in short dropout attempts (31) at the end of the finals series. The Warriors (27) were closely behind, with Johnson attempting a league-high 25 attempts at a 33 percent success rate.

Cameron Munster (22 attempts) lead the way for Melbourne but Nick Meaney (2), Jonah Pezet (2) and Ryan Papenhuyzen (2) also had a punt. 

The Storm regained more short dropouts than any other team this year in 10, but were behind the Bulldogs, Cowboys and Warriors when it came to percentage after turning over possession on 21 attempts.

Why not everyone's convinced

On the other side of the spectrum, the Sharks had a zero percent success rate last season with all five attempts coughed up, going out on the full or falling short.

Halfback Nicho Hynes said after discussing the option in pre-season, his team decided to shelve the tactic early in the year.

"We had a look at some statistics and I think it showed us that it doesn’t work as much as what people think and more than likely the other team will get it or there’s a penalty," Hynes told NRL.com.

"So we just thought we wanted to back our defence, although sometimes our defence wasn’t as great. But usually when we get a dropout we come back and defend our set."

Hynes also believed his team wasn't as suited to the tactic as much as others, like his former club the Storm, with wingers Xavier Coates and Will Warbrick boasting an extra 17cm in height compared to Sharks duo Ronaldo Mulitalo and Sione Katoa.

"We didn’t feel like we needed it and didn’t want to show the opposition that we’re not willing to fight for it," he said.

"It's different if you can nail it and you’re someone like the Storm that have Xavier and Will who can get up and get it. Certain teams can do it, others can’t and I just felt like our team wasn’t best suited to it."

The Dolphins and Sea Eagles have also not taken to the trend with the newcomers failing to regain four from six attempts and the Sea Eagles six from seven in 2023.

The Roosters too are yet to see the same success as others, having lost 12 from 14 attempts last season. Their numbers are surprising, considering their options on the edges this year in Daniel Tupou and Joseph Suaalii who both stand at 196cm. The arrival of the two-metre-tall Dom Young might see the tactic reassessed in 2024.

Interestingly, the reigning premiers have also punted below the average of short dropouts with the Panthers only attempting 13 last year.

With halfback Nathan Cleary known to have the ball on a string, it's surprising the premiers only kicked it short on 14 occasions but perhaps too the risk isn't warranted for a team so often in the lead.

Is it really a risk worth taking?

No team saw a greater success rate than 36 percent in 2023, so statistically the risk probably isn't worth the reward as a blanket rule of thumb, but teams that are suited to the tactic are likely to keep pushing for more success. 

We can see there are many factors teams consider when weighing up the short dropout and ultimately, the tactic suits each of the 17 sides differently.

Some teams have most likely spent far less time discussing the option as they manage the scoreboard in their favour, while others have spent hours at training lining up their towering wingers for success.

Some sides have a good defensive line that they'll back to hold on for another set while others are desperate to get the game back in their favour and will gamble possession for a chance to get out of jail.

It's clear there's no one-size fits all approach for the short dropout but it'll be fascinating to see whether the tactic evolves to a more standardised approach in 2024.