Five teams enter Round 27 with a chance of snaring one of three remaining finals spots, while the race for the minor premiership remains wide open as well.
In what will be a thrilling end to the regular season, the top eight may not be confirmed until full-time in the last game on Sunday afternoon, with results in six of the eight matchups likely to have post-season ramifications.
As the Sharks and Raiders meet in a clash which could see the loser fall out of contention, the result could also have a ripple effect on the Cowboys and Roosters lower down the ladder.
The latest instalment of the Roosters v Rabbitohs rivalry on Friday night shapes as being an instant classic, with the Tricolours in must-win territory to stand a chance of progressing and South Sydney knowing a win will likely see them through.
We've crunched the numbers to find the best and worst case scenarios for all 17 clubs heading into Round 27.
Have a go seeing how you have the final ladder finishing up and what the play-offs will look like with the NRL Ladder Predictor.
Each team's best and worst case finishes
Brisbane Broncos (currently 1st)
- Current: 42 points, +224 differential
- Best case finish: 1st
- Worst case finish: 2nd
- Remaining games: v Storm (H)
Brisbane can clinch the minor premiership for the first time since 2000 with victory over the Melbourne Storm on Thursday night. Even if they do slip up, Kevin Walters' side might also be able to still clinch the J.J. Giltinan Shield should Penrith fall to the Cowboys on Saturday night after their stunning Round 26 loss to the Eels.
Reece Walsh Try
Penrith Panthers (currently 2nd)
- Current: 40 points, +301 differential
- Best case finish: 1st
- Worst case finish: 3rd
- Remaining games: v Cowboys (H)
The minor premiership is still alive for the Panthers but not in their own control after being well beaten by the Eels last week. Penrith need to beat North Queensland and then hope the Storm beat the Broncos as they hold the superior points differential.
Warriors (currently 3rd)
- Current: 38 points, +148 differential
- Best case finish: 2nd
- Worst case finish: 4th
- Remaining games: v Dolphins (A)
The numbers say that the Warriors can still technically finish in the top two but not only do they need to beat the Dolphins and see the Panthers lose to the Cowboys, they also need to see a 153-point swing in their favour in for-and-against. Should they stumble against the Dolphins and the Storm beat Brisbane, Andrew Webster's side could drop down a spot but are locked in for a top-four place regardless.
Melbourne Storm (currently 4th)
- Current: 36 points, +158 differential
- Best case finish: 3rd
- Worst case finish: 4th
- Remaining games: v Broncos (A)
Can jump the Warriors into third if they beat the Broncos and the Dolphins produce an upset win in the final round, but appear more likely locked into fourth spot. Melbourne have finished the regular season in the top four in 14 of the last 17 years.
Welcome back Paps!
Newcastle Knights (currently 5th)
- Current: 33 points, +155 differential
- Best case finish: 5th
- Worst case finish: 6th
- Remaining games: v Dragons (A)
The most in-form team in the competition right now after recording their eighth straight win on the weekend with a 26-point demolition over the Sharks. All eyes will be on Kalyn Ponga's availability for the finals, but the Knights are locked in to playing a home final irrespective of what happens in their clash with the Dragons. The only thing that can change for Newcastle is sliding from fifth to sixth should they fall to the Red V, while Canberra and Cronulla play out any other result than a draw.
Cronulla Sharks (currently 6th)
- Current: 32 points, +104 differential
- Best case finish: 5th
- Worst case finish: 9th
- Remaining games: v Raiders (H)
A tough loss to the Knights minus star playmaker Nicho Hynes has left the Sharks needing to get the job done against Canberra to secure their spot in the top eight. Results across the weekend may go in their favour, and being the final game on Sunday afternoon, Craig Fitzgibbon's side will know whether they need to win to play finals football or not. Either way, it's shaping as a crucial clash in the Shire between two teams desperate to not let their hard work this year go to waste.
Canberra Raiders (currently 7th)
- Current: 32 points, -119 differential
- Best case finish: 5th
- Worst case finish: 9th
- Remaining games: v Sharks (A)
It was a close-run affair in the nation's capital last week with Brisbane edging past the Raiders in an emotional contest – leaving Ricky Stuart's men in a near identical position to their opponents this week in Cronulla. What could go against the Green Machine is their for-and-against, with their -119 differential the worst of any of the 10 teams confirmed, or still in the hunt, to play finals football. A win over Cronulla would confirm their spot in the top eight; a loss could see them drop down to ninth after sitting in fourth spot just two months ago.
South Sydney Rabbitohs (currently 8th)
- Current: 30 points, +73 differential
- Best case finish: 7th
- Worst case finish: 11th
- Remaining games: v Roosters (H)
Well-rested off the bye, South Sydney's strong for-and-against leaves them with the most straightforward of jobs this weekend – beat the Roosters and you'll likely be playing finals football. Of course there's a scenario where that doesn't happen (should they only win by a small margin and the Cowboys thrash the Panthers) but it appears pretty easy to understand for Jason Demetriou's side this week. Souths can finish as high as seventh if they do win, depending on the winner between the Sharks and Raiders in the final game of the round.
North Queensland Cowboys (currently 9th)
- Current: 30 points, +36 differential
- Best case finish: 7th
- Worst case finish: 11th
- Remaining games: v Panthers (A)
Needed to get the job done against the Dolphins to give themselves a chance, which they have. North Queensland will know the result between the Roosters and Rabbitohs heading into their game against Penrith, while the Panthers will also know whether they are locked into second spot or not prior to kickoff, given the fact that the Broncos play in the first game of the round. If South Sydney lose then the Cowboys will likely be in to the finals with a win, while a Rabbitohs victory could still see Todd Payten's side reach the top eight if the Raiders lose to the Sharks. All of that won't matter, however, if they can't beat the Panthers on Saturday afternoon.
Sydney Roosters (currently 10th)
- Current: 30 points, -38 differential
- Best case finish: 7th
- Worst case finish: 11th
- Remaining games: v Rabbitohs (A)
Trent Robinson's side might have left their run a little late this year but they are still in the mix after posting their fourth straight win over Wests Tigers last week. Their clash against the Rabbitohs in a seemingly winner-takes-all contest is the game of the round this week, but the Roosters -38 points differential isn't great and could still come back to haunt them – even if they do beat their arch-rivals. Should Canberra beat the Sharks and the Cowboys beat the Panthers, there's a chance the Roosters still find themselves outside the top eight, so they'll be hoping for other results to go their way over the weekend after their mouthwatering matchup on Friday night.
Manu off injured
Parramatta Eels (currently 11th)
- Current: 28 points, +13 points
- Best case finish: 9th
- Worst case finish: 12th
- Remaining games: BYE
The Eels finished their season on a high with a win over the Panthers but it was simply a matter of "one win too few" for the blue and gold this year. With the bye in Round 27, Parramatta will finish on 30 points and, most likely, just two points away from a top eight spot in a disappointing follow-up to last year's Grand Final campaign.
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (currently 12th)
- Current: 27 points, -36 differential
- Best case finish: 12th
- Worst case finish: 12th
- Remaining games: v Wests Tigers (H)
The Sea Eagles are toiling hard without superstar fullback Tom Trbojevic – scoring a handy win over the Bulldogs last week – and will be hoping to end the year on a winning note when they face Wests Tigers at home. Anthony Seibold's side are locked into 12th either way, with all eyes on next year when their marquee fullback is hopefully healthy and new signings are on their way.
Gold Coast Titans (currently 13th)
- Current: 22 points, -130 differential
- Best case finish: 13th
- Worst case finish: 15th
- Remaining games: v Bulldogs (H)
Sunday brings a home game on the Gold Coast to end the year for Titans fans, who will fancy their chances at ending the season on a winning note against the Bulldogs before premiership-winning coach Des Hasler's arrival in 2024.
Dolphins (currently 14th)
- Current: 22 points, -135 differential
- Best case finish: 13th
- Worst case finish: 15th
- Remaining games: v Warriors (H)
The NRL's newest franchise have enjoyed some high moments in their inaugural season but have faded over the back half of the year to currently sit in 14th. They could move up one spot if they beat the Warriors or the Titans suffer a heavy defeat to the Bulldogs, but they are locked into a lowly ladder position either way.
Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs (currently 15th)
- Current: 20 points, -327 differential
- Best case finish: 13th
- Worst case finish: 15th
- Remaining games: v Titans (A)
The Bulldogs have just two wins since they played the Titans in Round 12 on a day when they snuck home by two points thanks to a late Jayden Okunbur try. They'll be hoping to make it two wins from two against the Gold Coast this year when they play their final game of the year on Sunday, with all eyes on the impact that Stephen Crichton, Blake Taaffe and Jaeman Salmon will make at Belmore next season.
St George Illawarra Dragons (currently 16th)
- Current: 16 points, -179 differential
- Best case finish: 16th
- Worst case finish: 17th
- Remaining games: v Knights (H)
The Roosters' win over Wests Tigers has seemingly kept the Dragons away from the wooden spoon but the numbers say it's still possible should they suffer a heavy defeat to the Knights and the Sea Eagles be upset by the 17th placed side. It doesn't appear likely, but wilder things have happened in rugby league. Shane Flanagan will take over at the Dragons next year and will no doubt bring plenty of renewed interest in the Red V's chances at moving up the ladder.
Wests Tigers (currently 17th)
- Current: 14 points, -248 differential
- Best case finish: 16th
- Worst case finish: 17th
- Remaining games: v Sea Eagles (A)
Appear locked in to back-to-back wooden spoons after another tough night at the office last week against the Roosters. The arrival of Aidan Sezer and Jayden Sullivan next year will offer some much needed depth and competition in the halves with Luke Brooks (Sea Eagles), Daine Laurie (Panthers) and Adam Doueihi (injured) all unavailable. Benji Marshall will assume the coaching duties with a new-look coaching staff in a bid to turn around the Tigers' misfortunes once and for all.
