Matters of State: Replacing Walsh not Slater's only headache

Maroons coach Billy Slater will have at least two new faces in his side for Origin III at Accor Stadium on July 12, and the role of Reuben Cotter will have a bearing on who one of them is.

While much of the focus has been on the suspension of fullback Reece Walsh, it is the injury to Tom Flegler that is likely to consume more of Slater's thinking time before finalising the team.

In the absence of Flegler, Slater must decide whether to call up Corey Horsburgh, Christian Welch or J'maine Hopgood as a middle forward replacement or shift Cotter from the second-row to start at prop.

If he chooses Cotter in the front-row, Dolphins enforcer Felise Kaufusi and Broncos utility Kurt Capewell are likely to vye with Horsburgh for selection as a second-rower - either starting or on the bench.

Fullback

With Reece Walsh suspended and Kalyn Ponga ruling himself out of Maroons selection before the series started, selecting the player to wear the No.1 jersey is the No.1 consideration for Queensland selectors ahead of Origin III.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow plays fullback for the Dolphins, while many believe it is Cameron Munster’s best position but moving a player from another position doesn’t make a lot of sense when you have a series winning line-up.

Gold Coast’s AJ Brimson is the front runner after recently returning from injury and being called up as 18th man for Origin II, but Selwyn Cobbo could be a left field option as he starred on the wing in the series opener before injuring his hip.

Outside backs

The return of Selwyn Cobbo creates a welcome headache for Queensland coach Billy Slater as his replacement Xavier Coates starred in Origin II and continued that form in the Storm’s defeat of the Sea Eagles last weekend.

Knights centre Dane Gagai would be another player under consideration for a recall if Slater decided to shift Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to fullback.

Assuming Slater sticks with Tabuai-Fidow in the centres, alongside Valentine Holmes, the most likely position for Cobbo is 18th man in place of Brimson.

Murray Taulagi has had a great Origin series so far on the left wing for Queensland and his defence has saved tries in both of the first two matches so his position isn't in any doubt.

Halves

Queensland captain Daly Cherry-Evans is like a fine wine, while Cameron Munster has shown throughout the series that he knows just when to inject himself in the game so it is hard to imagine the Maroons opting for a different pairing in Origin III.

If Munster did shift to fullback, North Queensland's Tom Dearden would be the most likely replacement, but Ben Hunt could also play five-eighth – leaving Harry Grant to play 80 minutes at hooker or possibly opening the way for Reed Mahoney to make his debut.

Middle forwards

Choosing whether to blood Raiders firebrand Corey Horsburgh or recall Storm captain Christian Welch is set to be Slater's biggest selection call after Broncos prop Tom Flegler was ruled out with a Lisfranc injury.

After joining the Maroons extended squad for Origin II, Horsburgh could finally get his chance to wear a Queensland jersey at Accor Stadium on July 12.

Welch is also a series contender after regaining the form that earned him a regular place in the Maroons squad from 2019 until sidelined for the 2022 season with an ACL injury. 

Flegler started in the front-row alongside Tino Fa'asuamaleaui in Origin II after Rueben Cotter moved to the second-row following the loss of Tom Gilbert from the team which won the series opener in Adelaide.

Slater could now shift Cotter back to prop and start Jeremiah Nanai in a highly skilled second-row pairing with David Fifita or he may choose to promote Lindsay Collins or Moe Fotuaika from the bench to the starting side.

The other forward in line for a Maroons call up is Eels lock J'maine Hopgood but Horsburgh is widely tipped to win the nod from Slater and fellow Queensland selectors Darren Lockyer and Gene Miles.

Rabbitohs forward Jai Arrow is still sidelined with a syndesmosis injury, ruling him out of contention for Origin III after starting on the interchange at Adelaide Oval.

Second-rowers

David Fifita and Rueben Cotter started in the second-row at Suncorp Stadium, with 2022 NRL rookie of the year Jeremiah Nanai recalled to the squad after Dolphins forward Tom Gilbert dislocated his shoulder in Origin I.

Corey Horsburgh is regarded as a middle forward but he has played in the second-row for Canberra this season, while Felise Kaufusi and Kurt Capewell are other options after being overlooked for selection in Origin I and II. 

With Jai Arrow also unavailable, it is unlikely the Maroons will make any unforced changes to their forward pack.

Hooker

Queensland have the World Cup winning Kangaroos dummy-half pairing of Ben Hunt and Harry Grant and their partnership has been so effective it is hard to imagine Slater changing anything.

However, Hunt plays in the halves for St George Illawarra and could shift to five-eighth if Cameron Munster moves to fullback - opening the way for Canterbury captain Reed Mahoney to play in tandem with Grant.

Interchange

With either Lindsay Collins, Moe Fotuaika or Rueben Cotter expected to start in place of injured prop Tom Flegler, there will be at least one change to the bench, depending on which way Slater opts to reshape his forward pack.

Christian Welch, J'maine Hopgood or Corey Horsburgh while the latter could be vying with Felise Kaufusi or Kurt Capewell if Slater chooses to push Cotter from the second-row to the front-row.

Slater may also decide to carry an outside back on the bench after seeing the impact on NSW after losing Tom Trbojevic and it would be an easy way to accommodate the return of Selwyn Cobbo after he missed Origin II with injury.