Matters of State: Can Blues stop clean sweep while looking to the future?

With the Maroons having retained the State of Origin Shield, NSW coach Brad Fittler will be wanting to prevent the first series clean sweep since 2010 amid pressure to also look to the future.

It's a dilemma for a coach whose own future could rely on the result but recalling veterans such as Cody Walker and Reagan Campbell-Gillard over Nicho Hynes or Spencer Leniu may be hard to justify when the series has been lost.

Latrell Mitchell and Tom Trbojevic are out, so Fittler is forced into changes among his outside backs, while many would view Origin III at Accor Stadium as an opportunity to give the likes of Hynes and Dylan Edwards a chance.

The Blues have twice been caught out by not having an outside back on the interchange so the make up of their bench could change, with Leniu, Keaon Koloamatangi and Haumole Olakau'atu in contention for forward berths.

Matt Burton and Campbell Graham are the other new faces likely to be vying for positions in the backline. 

Fullback

James Tedesco has not been in his best form for most of this season but it would be a huge call for Fittler to drop the Australian, NSW and Sydney Roosters captain.

With Latrell Mitchell injured, the obvious replacement if Tedesco didn't play is Penrith's Dylan Edwards, who is arguably the most consistent performer in the NRL.

Few would deny Edwards deserves a chance at Origin but he is likely to have to bide his time before wearing the Blues No.1 jersey.

Outside backs

Dylan Edwards' Clive Churchill winning effort

After being a late call-up for both Origin I in Adelaide and Origin II in Brisbane, Panthers centre Stephen Crichton can finally count on being named to play Origin III from the outset.

In fact, Crichton and Penrith team-mate Brian To’o are probably the only outside backs guaranteed of selection, with star centres Latrell Mitchell and Tom Trbojevic ruled out and Josh Addo-Carr’s position on the right wing under scrutiny.

South Sydney’s Campbell Graham was originally named 18th man for the series opener and can play wing as well as centre, while Matt Burton was 18th man in Origin I and II after Crichton was promoted to the starting side in place of Mitchell.

With the loss of Trbojevic in the 68th minute at Adelaide Oval and third minute at Suncorp Stadium having such a huge bearing on NSW’s fortunes, the Blues brains trust must be seriously considering carrying an outside back on the bench.

A wildcard selection could be Panthers fullback Dylan Edwards on the wing – a position the likes of Billy Slater, Anthony Minichiello and Darius Boyd all started their Origin careers - and where he has previously played for Penrith.

All of Campbell Graham's tries so far this season

Halves

Jarome Luai has been arguably one of NSW’s best players in the series, while Mitchell Moses didn’t do much wrong after being called upon to replace Nathan Cleary for Origin II but it may be time to give Nicho Hynes a go.

Hynes was on the Blues interchange in Origin I but played just the final 12 minutes in the unfamiliar role of right centre after Trbojevic was forced from the field for a HIA.

He was then dumped for Origin II as NSW opted for an interchange hooker rotation that also was never utilised after Damien Cook played 77 minutes at left centre in a reshuffle caused by the loss of Trbojevic with a torn pectoral muscle.

The 2022 Dally M Medallist has been leading Cronulla around at halfback for the past two seasons and was initially chosen for the Blues because many feel he deserves a chance at Origin so now may be his time.

Rabbitohs five-eighth Cody Walker is the other player in the mix for a halves spot and Fittler said after the team for Origin II was announced that he had told the star playmaker he remained under consideration.

Middle Forwards

Future teammates sin binned

Payne Haas is undisputed as the best front-rower in the game and the difficulty for coaches is knowing when to spell him as the Broncos star usually looks like he could play 80 minutes.

Parramatta prop Junior Paulo has been a mainstay of the NSW team for several years now and is a forward leader but there is a view that he may be more effective on the interchange than starting.

Panthers lock Isaah Yeo is another forward whose position in the Blues team appears to be firmly entrenched after he was named vice-captain for Origin II but many believe a place needs to be found for Rabbitohs captain Cameron Murray in the starting side.

Murray can play second-row but his best position is in the middle and if an Australian side was named now he would be one of the few NSW players guaranteed of selection on form.

Canterbury prop Tevita Pangai Jnr made his Blues debut in the series opener and he was replaced by Wests Tigers rookie Stefano Utoikamanu in Origin II but the return of Jake Trbojevic for Manly this weekend will be closely monitored by Fittler.

Trbojevic is a player NSW have missed this series and if fit he would be expected to be chosen for Origin III. 

Like Trbojevic, Eels prop Reagan Campbell-Gillard was a member of Australia’s World Cup winning team at Old Trafford last November and he had also been unavailable for Origin I and II due to injuries but us has now returned.

Penrith’s Spencer Leniu was strongly considered for Origin II and if the Blues are looking to the future he would likely be the first prop Fittler brings into the team.

Second-rowers

Koloamatangi stars for Tonga

Liam Martin is one of the first forwards picked if he is fit, and if Murray plays in the middle, Tyson Frizell and Hudson Young could be vying with Manly’s Haumole Olakau'atu and South Sydney’s Keaon Koloamatangi for two spots in the squad.

Young made his debut in Origin I and Frizell was recalled after missing selection last year but there will be a temptation to choose Olakau'atu or Koloamatangi – if not both – for the series finale.

Koloamatangi was in the 19-man squad for Origin II and has the versatility to play as an edge backrower, in the middle or even at hooker after performing the dummy half duties for Tonga during last year’s World Cup.

Hooker

Much will depend on the hamstring injury Reece Robson sustained against South Sydney last week but after making his Origin debut at Suncorp Stadium the Cowboys rake now appears set to be NSW's long term hooker.

Robson played 80 minutes in Origin II after interchange dummy half Damien Cook was thrust into the unfamiliar left centre role and it remains to be seen whether the Blues persevere with a hooker on the bench or an outside back.

If Robson is unfit, Cook is likely to start and with Api Koroisau injured there is no other obvious option to share the dummy half duties with him, although Cronulla's Blayke Brailey spent time in camp during Origin I.

Interchange

Olakau'atu takes flight

If Fittler decides to carry an outside back on the interchange, Matt Burton would appear the best suited as he can cover the halves or centres but is also a big body who could play in the middle for a short stint.

Should NSW have a back on the bench, it is hard to imagine Fittler will run with two hookers so the other three positions will be forwards - probably two middles and an edge backrower.

Keaon Koloamatangi can play both, as can his Rabbitohs team-mate Cameron Murray, so the Blues should be covered for an injury to either a second-rower or a middle forward. 

Haumole Olakau'atu would also provide strike as an edge backrower.

With two of either Paulo, Yeo or Murray expected to start alongside Haas and the third to be on the bench, Spencer Leniu, Jake Trbojevic, Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Stefano Utoikamanu may be vying for the remaining interchange spot.