Fantasy owners have a big call to make on Joey Manu this week, while at the same time one of his Roosters teammates has popped up as a possible bargain buy.
We also look over a couple of possible traps at EDG who are getting plenty of attention this week.
Crucial Fantasy calls for Round 12
What to do with Joey Manu
With an ankle injury keeping him out this week and the Roosters on a bye in Round 13, Joey Manu won't play again until Round 14 at the earliest. So what do we do with him?
Manu helped from the field
If you're playing head to head in a league which doesn't play during bye rounds then he's a hold, with the very real possibility he's only out for one playing round.
But if you're in it for overall points or your league plays through bye rounds, his $655k price tag is probably too much to have sitting in your reserves, plus there is uncertainty around his position when he returns, with Sam Walker a chance of coming back into contention in the halves.
If you need a CTR, Matthew Timoko, who averages 56.3 over his last three games, can be a straight swap at $651k, while there are a number of decent WFB options around that price range.
Spot the <$600k pretenders v the contenders
A handful of players have emerged in recent weeks who are scoring well and available at less than $600k, but which of them are traps?
Top Fantasy scorer: Luki
There has been plenty of love for Heilum Luki (EDG, $516k) after his excellent 84 points in 60 minutes against the Dragons last week. But he was playing a struggling opponent, scored a double and made two line breaks, all of which won't be the case most weeks. He is also part of a forward pack which has a stack of talent returning from injury and suspension in coming weeks, so for me there are far too many questions around his role right now to make him a set and forget player.
Another EDG, $470k Andrew Davey, has emerged as a first-choice starting back-rower at the Eels in the past fortnight and scored 48 and 51. On one hand his job security has been strengthened by Shane Lane's hamstring injury which will keep him out until Round 20, but there is still far too much back-row talent at Parramatta for him to be considered a safe option, with Ryan Matterson a chance of taking his job at any point.
The better option who comes at even less cost is MID Tevita Tatola ($445k), whose price plummeted due to in-game injuries earlier in the year. He's scored around the point per minute mark in the last two weeks and is a good chance of becoming a 50-point player in coming weeks as the Rabbitohs give him more minutes in order to manage their forwards who will play Origin.
While his ceiling is definitely lower than Tatola's, given he will likely get fewer minutes, there is also value in Roosters prop Matthew Lodge, who has averaged 47.7 over his past three games. Lodge is available at $461k and is getting his points mostly from base stats.
Billy the buy?
Roosters centre Billy Smith has made every post a winner since returning to the NRL in Magic Round, with back-to-back scores of 62 and 60 making him an extremely attractive CTR option at just $431k.
His base stats suggest he is doing enough to ensure he could score consistently in the high 40s or low 50s going forward, but the real question around him isn't about what he can do on the field.
The Chooks are on the board
He has had a horror run with injury and prospective owners need to weigh up whether they think his body will let him down once the week-to-week grind of the season sets in. That doesn't mean he's not a buy, but make the trade knowing it's a real possibility he could be trade out again in coming weeks.
The other major thing to consider now is his job security. While Joey Manu is viewed as a five-eighth it is very strong, but the second Trent Robinson decides Sam Walker is returning to the halves and Manu is back at centre, Smith will almost certainly be the man to make way.
Fantasy draft free agent of the week
Adam Elliott returned from a long layoff with a groin injury last week and scored over a point a minute off the bench for the Knights, hitting 40 in a 35-minute stint. While he probably isn't a first-choice MID, he will be a very handy option to have over the next few weeks due to Newcastle playing in Round 13 and 16, when a bunch of teams are out on the bye.