Round 1 showed us a couple of surprise Fantasy performances, in addition to some grim first outings for highly-purchased rookies.
Many owners will be reaching for the trades this week, but it's important not to overreact to what could have been a one-off showing.
Crucial Fantasy calls for Round 2
Time to make a move for Josh King?
Storm forward Josh King starred as a starting lock last week, playing 81 minutes and churning out a huge 77 in Fantasy, and at $551k he is understandably attracting plenty of interest this week as a potential cut-price keeper.
The big question now is whether he can hold his starting spot and how his minutes might be impacted by the impending return of a bunch of Storm forwards. Tariq Sims (due back in Round 3 from a calf) and Tui Kamikamica (Round 4-5 from a foot injury) present the biggest obstacles to King being an elite MID. But given how inexperienced his back row is right now, and Eliesa Katoa being prone to more than the odd error, Craig Bellamy could well opt to play Sims as a dedicated edge, leaving Kamikamica as the main worry.
Given his points per minute output last week, which even if you remove his try assist and line-break assist was just under a point per minute, at his current price King is a bargain even if his scores do drop into the 50s.
Only three other MIDs in the $500k range hit over 50 in Round 1, so to me King is a good buy if you can justify it being an upgrade on whoever you are swapping him for. But if you’re going to do it, this is the week, with a break even set at seven and a big price rise coming.
The punt on big Connelly as a CTR
At $432k and with a role coming on in the pack for the Dolphins, Connelly Lemuelu, who is listed as an EDG/CTR Fantasy, is a more palatable Fantasy CTR option than a heap of others out there for a similar or higher price.
It's almost always better to have a CTR who plays in the forwards – sometimes bench players included – than to have one who actually plays centre in the NRL, and while Lemuelu won't score a try every week like he did in the win over the Roosters, even if you remove his four-pointer and line break he still would have hit 56 last week. To be conservative we can even minus off three of his five tackle breaks, which still would have left him having scored 50 points in as many minutes from mainly base stats.
The risk is that it seems unlikely he'll play 50 minutes every week, while someone is probably going to have to make way on the interchange for Herman Ese'ese when he returns in Round 4, although Lemuelu would seem reasonably safe given he fulfills and different role on the edge.
Lemuelu takes advantage of late call-up
Patience with Isaiya Katoa
Katoa is the most owned player in Fantasy, with 52.7 percent of all teams having him, which means there are likely plenty out there considering selling him after his 11-point debut.
But the simple answer is don't.
Katoa looked a bit overwhelmed at times last week, which won't be the case for long if his junior career and performances at senior Test level are anything to go by. He also missed three tackles and made three errors, resulting in -12 Fantasy points, and at least on the errors part he isn't likely to make that many mistakes most weeks.
If you bought into the hype with Katoa then it's way too early to be concerned, and there is a very good chance brighter days on the Fantasy front are to come.
Katoa soaks up amazing win
Be wary attending the Carty Party
If you had him from the start then happy days! This warning doesn't impact you and you stand to make some nice cash off Bryce Cartwright, who started the year at the rookie price of $250k before putting in an 84-minute, 57-point performance which now has his break even at -9.
If you need a money maker right now then Cartwright is still a very good pickup, with a conservative projection (reducing his average to 40 points per game) having his price jump to the mid-$400k mark by the time Ryan Matterson returns in Round 4 and potentially takes his job.
But you'll be buying a short term prospect and nothing more in all likelihood, with J'maine Hopgood all but certain to retain a starting role even when Ryan Matterson and Shaun Lane return to action, meaning Cartwright will be reduced to a limited-minute bench role, or possibly be out of the 17 altogether.
He's got some value right now, but understand that any trade for Cartwright will likely require another trade in a few weeks to dump him out before he loses the cash he's made.
Fantasy Draft free agents of the week
Very few leagues had Connelly Lemuelu taken in the draft, and unless you took a CTR early there is a good chance he represents a better option than whatever you are working with right now.
You'll likely find a couple of good MID options sitting there too, with Lemuelu's Dolphins teammate Mark Nicholls not claimed by many yet and shaping as a good pick up even if you take away the points from his try last week. If Josh King is available, which he was in both of the leagues this correspondent is in, then it's a no-brainer to jump at him.