Plenty remains on the line as the final round of group play approaches at the 2021 Rugby League World Cup, with jostling for qualifying spots set to go down to the wire.
While some sides are all but assured of progressing, the crucial seeding positions - which will determine who plays who in the quarter-finals - are yet to be decided.
NRL.com has crunched the numbers and looked over the remaining games to see what each nation needs to do in round three.
Group A
How it stands
England currently lead the group with two wins from two games, while Samoa and France are level on two points with Greece in fourth. There is a 16-point differential between Samoa and France, currently keeping the Pacific nation in second place.
Remaining fixtures
- England v Greece (Sunday, 12.30am AEDT)
- Samoa v France (Monday, 4.00am AEDT)
How it could finish
Barring a stunning upset from Greece over England, the host nation will secure top spot of the group with a win on Sunday morning. All eyes will then turn to Monday morning's game which will see Samoa take on France in a sudden-death clash, where the winner moves through to the quarterfinals and the loser goes home.
The winner of Group A will face the runner-up in Group D (either Tonga, Cook Islands or Papua New Guinea) while the runner-up will face the winner of that group.
Rugby League World Cup Round 2 Wrap: Group A
Group B
How it stands
Similar to England, Australia are in command of Group B with a two-point lead and significant points differential advantage of the teams below. Fiji (+22 differential) and Italy (-32 differential)) are level on two points each and will fight it out for second place in the group in the final match, while Scotland (-108 differential) are winless.
Remaining fixtures
- Fiji v Scotland (Sunday, 3.00am AEDT)
- Australia v Italy (Sunday, 5.30am AEDT)
How it could finish
Unless Scotland can upset Fiji, then the order in Group B is likely set with the Bati set to finish second behind Australia, who will go into their match against Italy as heavy favourites. Technically, Italy still a chance at progressing to the quarterfinals but their path would require two stunning upsets — a winless Scotland downing Fiji before themselves upsetting the Kangaroos in their final pool game.
The winner of Group B will face the runner-up in Group C (either Lebanon or Ireland) while the runner-up in Group B will face the winner of that group.
Rugby League World Cup Round 2 Wrap: Group B
Group C
How it stands
Like both Australia and England in the earlier groups, New Zealand are in firm control of Group C and will officially book their place in the knockout rounds with a win over Ireland. The Wolfhounds are in second, with their +28 points differential greater than that of Lebanon (-2) who are equal with them on third. Jamaica remain winless and have conceded more points than any team at the World Cup.
Remaining fixtures
- New Zealand v Ireland (Saturday, 5.30am AEDT)
- Lebanon v Jamaica (Sunday, 11.00pm AEDT)
How it could finish
Assuming New Zealand win over Ireland, they will top the group and the final game will determine who progresses through to the knockout rounds. Lebanon will go into their clash against the Reggae Warriors as firm favourites to progress, and will secure second place in the group if they do — setting up a probable quarterfinal showdown against competition favourites Australia the following week.
Rugby League World Cup Round 2 Wrap: Group C
Group D
How it stands
Group D is the most competitive group going into the final round of games with all four teams producing strong performances so far. Tonga are on top, with two wins from their two matches, while Papua New Guinea and Cook Islands are level on two points behind them, separated by 20 points in their differential. Wales remain bottom of the group after failing to win a match so far.
Remaining fixtures
- Tonga v Cook Islands (Monday, 1.30am AEDT)
- Papua New Guinea v Wales (Tuesday, 6.30am AEDT)
How it could finish
Cook Islands have been competitive in their matches so far but will still go into their match against Tonga as heavy underdogs, needing to produce a stunning upset if they are to progress through to the knockout rounds. If Tonga win, as many expect, then they will wrap up top spot in the group — potentially setting up a mouthwatering quarterfinal clash against Samoa — while Papua New Guinea would also progress through to the knockout rounds, regardless of their result against Wales.
Rugby League World Cup Round 2 Wrap: Group D
