Back in May, NRL.com crunched the numbers to see which teams were making the most of the captain's challenge in 2022 — turning decisions that might have gone against them into a positive.
The results, which can be seen in this article, gave us a clear insight into how teams approached the captain's challenge process with a number of key takeaways:
- At the time, 52.1% of captain's challenges were coming back as successful, an uplift in success rate from 2020 (41.6%) and 2021 (44.7%).
- Every team lodged more challenge attempts in the second half of games than the first half of games — pointing to the precious nature of the challenge.
With double the data at our fingertips now as we approach the final round of the 2022 NRL Telstra Premiership regular season, let's take a look at the numbers once again to see which teams have become more efficient at using their captain's challenge this year and which ones still have work to do in 2023.
Which teams have been most successful in 2022?
The runaway competition leaders, Penrith have been the most efficient team with their captain's challenges this year — successful in getting 58.3 percent of their attempts overturned by the Bunker throughout the season.
Just behind them is their 2021 Grand Final counterparts, South Sydney, who have been successful with 57.89 percent of their attempts while the Sea Eagles (56.25%), Eels (54.17%) and Roosters (54.17%) have also enjoyed positive success rates.
Melbourne have had exactly half of their attempts overturned, while the Bulldogs have had the third most successful challenges (11) but have also had the second unsuccessful challenges (13). Only the Titans (28) have attempted more challenges than Canterbury (24) this season with Parramatta also having 24 attempts.
With the overall average of clubs at 44.8% this year, several clubs are coming in well under that mark to balance out the ones mentioned above.
Despite sitting second on the ladder heading into Round 25, Cronulla have enjoyed a success rate of just 30.77 percent with their captain's challenges this year, while the Titans (35.71%) and Dragons (38.89%) have also struggled.
The worst strike rate, however, belongs to the Warriors, who have had just two of their 15 attempts successful in overturning decisions at a rate of 13.33 percent.
Are teams still better in the first half?
Simply put, yes.
While no team has a season success rate above 60 percent, when we look at just the first halves of game, several teams surpass that mark. Which, when you think about the context of teams not wanting to throw away a challenge and therefore only challenging events where they're "convinced" were incorrect, makes sense.
Canberra and Melbourne head into Round 25 having not lost a first half captain's challenge while the Wests Tigers (83.33%) are also surprisingly strong with their first half attempts, with more successful challenges (5) in the opening 40 minutes than any other team alongside the Bulldogs (5).
With a smaller sample size — given there have been 86 total challenges in the first half compared to 218 in the second — it's understandable to get more discrepancies in the data as percentages swing out. For example, the Eels have had five incorrect first half challenges for a success rate of 16.67% and have had six incorrect second half challenges for a success rate of 66.67% given they have attempted three times as many challenges in the second half as they did the first.
Conversely, the Wests Tigers have had a success rate of just 33.33% in the second half with 10 unsuccessful challenges from their 15 attempts compared to 83.33% in the first half with five successful and one unsuccessful.
The Rabbitohs (66.67%) join the Eels (66.67%) with the best second half success rate of any team while the Panthers (62.50%) and Broncos (54.55%) have also enjoyed a strong success rate in the latter stages of games this year.
Gold Coast have attempted the most challenges in the second half with 20 (of which just six have been correct) while only Parramatta have been successful in more second half challenges than the Roosters with 12 and nine respectively.
What impact will it have in the finals series?
With the finals series just around the corner, it will be fascinating to see what impact the captain's challenge has on games with several top eight sides markedly better than others when it comes to knowing the right time and moment to challenge.
Of the current top four teams heading into Round 25 (Penrith, Cronulla, North Queensland and Melbourne), only the Panthers have a positive success rate with 58.33% of their challenges being overturned this year.
Cronulla enter Round 25 with the worst success rate of any of the top eight teams, having been correct in just four of their 13 challenge attempts this season, while the sides currently placed fifth to eighth — the Eels, Roosters, Rabbitohs and Raiders — combine for an average better than 50 percent.
With more on the line for the finals series, how and when teams choose to use their captain's challenge could play a pivotal role in deciding which team is left standing triumphant when the final whistle blows on Sunday, October 2.