Lone Scout's NRL Fantasy Q&A: Round 7

With Latrell Mitchell and Paul Momirovski suspended, Ryan Papenhuyzen and Bailey Simonsson injured and some new potential cash cows on the scene, it's another tricky week.

• NRL Fantasy teams analysis: Round 7 – WFB chaos
• Casualty Ward: Papenhuyzen sidelined

This week's big questions

Tom Turbo seems like a bargain at $500k. Swap Latrell for him now he's out for 4 weeks?

From Jarrod John Harry

Yep, it looks a good move. Tom Trbojevic clearly has a horror injury record but that discounted price and his ability to produce quality scores like he did on the weekend was the reason he was one of the most-owned players in Fantasy during the pre-season. Even if Turbo can't quite match the very top WFBs in terms of scoring he can go close to earning $150k in price rises – especially if he can put together a few more 60+ scores in the next few weeks.

I know I should have sold him ages ago but I persisted with Brimson. Would take a big haircut selling him now but do I have to do it?

From Lauren Gill

It's a very rough position to be in considering he's lost more than $180k on his starting value, but I'd probably cut the cord now and look for a replacement. The argument for replacing him isn't really that he's losing value and more that he looks a long way from being a keeper – he's averaged 33 points across six games, with a high score of 49, when there are currently eight winger/fullbacks averaging more than 55 across the season.

Even after his price drop, Brimson is still close to the same price as Tom Trbojevic who looks great value after a first-up 67 in his return from injury last weekend.

I'm thinking of sacrificing Cook to get Cleary in, surely that isn't a sideways trade anymore with Cleary's form?

From Stu Blok

Yeah, Nathan Cleary's ridiculous form – he's averaging a Bradmanesque (the cricketer, not the Knights centre) 97.8 points a game – so he's the exception to the "don't trade keepers" rule.

Is Turpin a sell now that Levi has signed?

From Sam Kay

It's not looking great for Turpin's future Fantasy prospects with Danny Levi immediately included on the Broncos bench after signing with the club this week, but you can afford to wait a week and see how much his presence affects Turpin's game time (and scoring). With a break even in the 30s, Turpin isn't likely to lose much value even if he is subbed off after 50 or 60 minutes this seek.

How safe is Curran? Is he worth bringing in or is he only getting a couple of games? 80 minutes 140 run meters and 50 tackles are nice base stats for a sub $300K player.

From Brett Connell

Yeah, those stats make him a very tempting prospect but Josh Curran's job security isn't rock solid just yet.

Bailey Sironen, who was a first-choice starter in round one, has been sidelined by injury since round two and is making his return via the bench this week. He could easily be promoted to the starting side in the coming weeks.

Eliesa Katoa is another second-rower the Warriors could turn to. He's currently playing reserve grade after being thrust into the NRL very early in his rugby league career last year (he's a rugby union convert with about 20 rugby league games to his name) and is likely to return to the top grade at some point, although it could be later in the season.

So Curran could still be a great quick money maker, but there is some risk there – and edge forwards are only really good prospects if they keep a spot in the starting side.

Is Mahoney the must-have hooker or should we wait for others to bottom out?

From Brenton Vicary

The good thing about hookers this year is that there are a lot of good ones. Jayden Brailey looks a genuine keeper, as does Andrew McCullough. Then there are last year's guns Damien Cook, Harry Grant and Api Koroisau who should all be great value in the weeks to come after dropping in price due to some low early scores.

Reed Mahoney is scoring better than all those guys but he's also easily the most expensive, and any combination of two to four of the above players would do the job for a final team. So you can afford to wait for a while and pick up a couple on the cheap when it suits your team best.

Tohu or Papali'i as a keeper?

From Darryl Jones

Tohu Harris is the safer bet. He is yet to post a single score below 61 this year, and there's no reason why his high-scoring role will change all season. He was also a consistent scorer all through last year.

Isaiah Papali'i is in outrageously good form and is currently scoring tries for fun, but at some point is likely to return to the bench when Ryan Matterson is fit to play. He can still score well there but is more likely to hit 50s than 60s so Harris looks the safer buy at a similar price.

Will Shaun Johnson affect Townsend's scores when he comes back?

From Jason Frazer

Definitely. Johnson is named to come off the bench this week but will almost certainly start as soon as next week, and even if he doesn't place Townsend in the starting side (which is arguably a stronger possibility now with Townsend bound for the Cowboys next season) he will certainly take on more of the kicking duties than Townsend's current halves partner Matt Moylan.

Johnson will also take on the goal-kicking and will be the team's go-to playmaker in attacking positions, so Townsend is likely to lose kick metres, goals and try assists. He's probably a sell next week.

Turbo or Ponga? I can get one this week and one next week, who do I get this week?

From jekopemrg

If you plan to get both, get Tom Trbojevic this week and Ponga next. Trbojevic's break even is 20 less than Ponga's (and he's more than $300k cheaper), plus Ponga has a very tricky opponent this round in the Panthers who are the best defensive team in the competition.

If you're only getting one, I don't mind splashing the cash on Ponga. Trbojevic is better value for money but someone you probably will want to upgrade later unless he can lift his Fantasy average up into the 50s (and stay fit) this season.

Hold or upgrade SST?

From Kobie Johnston

It's a tough one. The fact Siosiua Taukeiaho is named to play this week means he's not a definite trade out, even though his scoring had been a little underwhelming even before his injury-affected 19 last round. He was still averaging 52 points a game before that injury so is a borderline keeper as a middle forward.

If you keep him, prepare to hold on for the long haul as his price could slide well below $600k in the next few weeks unless he racks up some bumper scores. If you don't rate him as a keeper and want to make a big move, do it now rather than in a month's time.

Sell or hold Momirovski?

From Moses P

Three weeks on the sidelines is usually a line-ball call for whether to hold or sell a player, so it's not a clear-cut question.

But as Momirovski is a probable keeper in the worst-scoring position in Fantasy, if you have a half-decent replacement you can use in the meantime it could be worth holding onto him for the long run.

The one possible downside to holding is if Momirovski struggles to win back a spot in the centres, which is unlikely but possible with Matt Burton playing well and Stephen Crichton to return to the centres when Dylan Edwards is fit. If Momirovski is bumped to the wing his scoring will obviously take a dip.

Teddy and Cook bounce back?

From Chris McGeary

Yeah they're both proven guns, I'd be keeping them.

Have Liddle, Taukeiaho, Josh Jackson … who is a trade out, who is wait and see?

From Stephen Walsh

Certainly, Liddle is a trade with Jake Simpkin appearing to have locked down the Tigers No.9 jersey. Jackson is set to be sidelined for a month so is a probable trade as well. Taukeiaho could easily average 50 for the rest of the season so isn't a must-trade – although last week's score will hurt his price in the short term.

 

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